Dollar Shows Follow Through on Bullish Break, EURUSD at 2010 Lows

There was a distinct difference in performance between basic risk trends and the US dollar. Though the Dow Jones Industrial Average briefly tested a new low for the year, it quickly recovered most of its lost ground. In contrast, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index advanced for a second consecutive day to fresh 16-month highs. This conviction was echoed by EURUSD’s slide below 1.2625 (bringing it to its lowest level since July 2010), AUDUSD holding onto six month lows and NZDUSD breaking a multi-year rising trend. Risk aversion keeps this currency on its bullish bearing, but the rebound in US equities can pose a problem. As a liquidity haven, we need aggressive risk aversion to keep the dollar moving.

 

Euro Drops Across the Board as Market Realizes EU Summit Impotent

The euro dropped against everyone of its major counterparts this past trading session – ultimate safe havens all the way up to high-risk carry currencies. Considering the market was doused in risk aversion through much of the day, it is clear that there was a greater degree of fear surrounding this particular currency than any other. That concern is the deterioration in the financial and economic health of the region it represents. Heading into Wednesday’s session, there was hope that the EU summit that was held in Brussels would provide some meaningful support for Greece and the broader region. That said, every one of the points that could have contributed to recovery were rejected: no Eurozone bonds, no growth measures, no fiscal treaty, no rescue program boosts, but a promise to help Greece if it stays the course. That said, this was disappointing but perhaps not surprising. We need an active catalyst. Perhaps the upcoming PMI readings can play that role.